FIFA World Cup archive · 1930 → 2034
Live model · awaiting first run
Every win, every group, every knockout — as a probability.
CupIQ runs an Elo + Poisson model over 20,000 Monte Carlo tournament simulations to forecast the FIFA World Cup 2026. No opinions. Just the math on top of real match data.
Championship odds
Matches · next 36 hours
Nothing scheduled in the next day and a half.
Biggest movers · vs yesterday
Needs two daily snapshots to compute movement.
Biggest upset risk
No standout upsets in today's fixtures.
Round-by-round odds
Current stage · F| Team | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpainChampion | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| ArgentinaFinalist | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — |
✓ = already advanced · — = eliminated · percentages are the simulated chance of reaching that round from the current bracket state.
Knockout bracket · liveclick to toggle▸
Round of 32
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany4
Paraguay5
Netherlands3
Morocco4
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium3
Senegal2
United States2
Bosnia-Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia3
Egypt5
Argentina3
Cape Verde Islands2
Colombia1
Ghana0Round of 16
Canada0Morocco3Paraguay0France1Brazil1Norway2Mexico2England3Portugal0Spain1United States1Belgium4Argentina3Egypt2Switzerland4Colombia3Quarter-finals
France2Morocco0Spain2Belgium1Norway1England2Argentina3Switzerland1Semi-finals
France0Spain2England1Argentina2Final
Spain1Argentina0Third-place playoff
Third-place
France4England6Group stage · results so farclick to toggle▸
Group A
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Group B
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
Group C
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Group D
P W D L GF GA Pts
| United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Turkey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Group E
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Group F
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Group G
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Group H
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Group I
P W D L GF GA Pts
| France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Group J
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| Austria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Group K
P W D L GF GA Pts
| Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Group L
P W D L GF GA Pts
| England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| Croatia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Daily scheduler
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